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HPBA Post-Election 2020 Report

As of 11:00 am on November 6, 2020

A scenario that many political analysts had predicted long before November 3 has played out—we do not know the outcome of the Presidential race days after Election Day and are not likely to know for at least a bit longer. Former Vice President Biden leads President Trump narrowly (253-213) in the race to secure the requisite 270 Electoral College votes need to win and appears to be inching closer to victory as more votes are counted. Most reports had President Trump leading in Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania in the days immediately after the election; the Georgia and Pennsylvania races may have tipped slightly in Vice President Biden’s favor in just the last 24 hours. Biden has many paths to 270, whereas Trump needs to carry several states where he is now trailing to be reelected. The votes that are now being counted are mail-in ballots that generally favor Biden. Even after all states have counted and certified the votes, the Trump administration has indicated that legal challenges will likely be coming. So, keep your seat belt buckled…we may not have certainty on the result for quite some time.

The following is a report on the status of Presidential, Senate, and House races. A more detailed policy impact analysis will be put together in the coming weeks as election results are finalized.

HPBA’s Public Policy Philosophy

HPBA will continue to work with both sides of the aisle to develop and propose policies that impact the industry at all levels. It is important to maintain the bipartisan spirit in which we work, regardless of Administration (and possibly party) changes every four or eight years, as the work we do never ends. Overall, our industry’s legislative and regulatory efforts have garnered bipartisan support. There is no reason to end that record of success now.

Election 2020: Results as of November 6, 2020

Presidential Election:

• Joe Biden: 264 Electoral College votes (Popular Vote: 73.5 million votes (50.5%))
• Donald Trump: 214 Electoral College votes (Popular Vote: 69.6 million votes (47.8%))
• Six states have not yet been called: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania
• The election really comes down to Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania
• Nevada will likely be won by Biden
• A recount will likely be called for in a few states where the apparent victor has less than one percent more votes

U.S. Senate Elections:

• Republicans appear on track to retain control of the Senate
• Key races in North Carolina, Iowa, and South Carolina remained in Republican hands
• Iowa: Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) wins reelection with 51.8% of the vote over Theresa Greenfield (D) with 91% of the vote counted
• North Carolina: Senator Tom Tillis (R-NC) wins reelection with 48.7% of the vote over Cal Cunningham (D) with 94% of the vote counted
• South Carolina: Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) wins reelection with 54.5% of the vote over Jaime Harrison (D) with 99% of votes counted
• Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) wins reelection with 50.4% of the vote over Sara Gideon (D) with 87% of votes counted
• Democrats picked up seats in Arizona and Colorado, but lost in Alabama
• ​  Alabama: Tommy Tuberville (R) wins with 60.3% of the vote over Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) with 99% of votes counted
• Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) wins with 51.7% of the vote over Senator Martha McSally (R-AZ) with 89% of votes counted
• Colorado: Former CO Governor John Hickenlooper wins with 53.3% of the vote over Senator Cory Gardner with 94% of votes counted
• Runoff in Georgia 
• There will be at least one runoff election in Georgia in January to fill the seat vacated by Senator Johnny Isakson (R-GA) when he retired.
• Neither Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), who was appointed by Georgia’s Governor until this special election, or Raphael Warnock, the Democratic challenger, have been able to secure at least 50% of the vote. Senator Loeffler currently has 26.0% and Mr. Warnock has 32.7% of the vote.
• Senator David Perdue (R-GA) is ahead with 49.8% of the vote over Jon Ossoff (D) with 98% of the vote counted
• But, if the final vote tallies result in him remaining below that 50% threshold, his race would also be on the ballot for the runoff election in January. It is conceivable that Democrats could win both these races, but given the trend last night, that seems unlikely.

U.S. House of Representatives Elections:

• Democrats will maintain control of the House as expected, but Republicans may gain a handful of seats.
• So far, 7 Democrat incumbents have been defeatedd. The most prominent of these from HPBA’s perspective is House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-MN-7), who was defeated by Michelle Fischbach.

HPBA will continue to remain close to the vote counting as it continues and provide you with regular updates and our analysis.

Have questions? Please contact Rachel Feinstein.